UCB Roundtable Discussion

The United Cardinal Bloggers Group is winding down the roundtable discussions, with one more debate to be posted on Monday.  Yesterday I posted three questions to the group for open discussion.  In addition to me, we had four other Cardinal bloggers participate:

• Daniel from C70 at the Bat
• Haedar from Redbird Ramblings
• Bryan from Rockin’ the Red
• Michael from Stan Musial’s Stance

Here are the questions, and everyone’s thoughts:

1.)  Yesterday, there was some talk about who you’ve been impressed with up to this point in Spring Training.  What about the opposite?  Which players are you surprised to see having a disappointing spring? Do you think they’ll turn it around?

Daniel:  There haven’t been a lot of disappointments.  There’s disappointment in the same old same old with injuries, as noted with Tyler Johnson still not throwing.  Izturis, to me, has been the biggest on-field disappointment, though.  I know he’s not much of a hitter, so the average wasn’t that disappointing, but the fielding?  He’s making an error a game, it seems like, and I know TLR is big on him, but right now, it’s not looking so good.

Haedar:  Gotta agree with Daniel and say Izturis.  He was never known for his offense, but he is supposed to be a high caliber defensive player and at least put up an average of .250, but he’s made tons of errors this spring and is hitting around .150.  Tony is being stubborn and  stating that he is the starting shortstop to avoid the “Spivey 2008″ tag.  If Cesar keeps this up, he will be relegated to the bench in no time.

Bryan:  Cesar Izturis has definitely been the most disappointing player this spring.  And to add to it, Tony La Russa has been equally as disappointing with his rigid position that Izturis is still doing well defensively and should still start.  I’m not sure Cesar has anything left in the tank anymore.  Molina’s slow start is disconcerting, but I think he’ll turn it around at some point.  Blake Hawksworth really disappointed me this spring, as this was a chance to make a good impression on the big league club.  I’m not too optimistic about him.

Michael:  Duncan’s horrible spring at the plate was a surprise to me.  Also to see Molina regress at the plate, after the progress he showed during last season, has been disappointing.  The other disappointment was Clement’s physical readiness not being what we expected/hoped it would be at the start of spring training. I hadn’t been aware of Izturis’ struggles with the glove until I saw your guys’ comments.

Daniel:  I’d like to see Molina hit better in the spring, but I wouldn’t say I was worried enough to call it a disappointment.  If it continues well into April, then that might be a different story.

Me:  Of course Izturis is the big one.  I was okay with the signing when it happened, and was willing to watch a sacrifice in offense for a defensive upgrade at short.  Turns out Izturis sucks with the glove too.  Tyler Johnson disappoints me too.  Last year, despite changing his jersey number and his hairstyle, he still got knocked around a bit.  I read that he had a baby, and was maturing quickly.  To hear that a little more work in the off season might have prevented his injury was very disappointing.

Daniel:  The only thing I’ll add is that I’m not sure that more work would have prevented his injury.  It might have helped, but this seriously sounds like a surgery thing coming pretty soon, in which case more work might have blown it out earlier or at best delayed the problem.

2.)  Opening Day is just ten days away.  There are a lot of new faces on this year’s team.  How would you grade John Mozeliak in his first off season as GM?  What were his best and worst moves?

Daniel:  Still a little hard to judge Mozeliak since a few moves were made while he was interim GM and some still haven’t really panned out.  All in all, though, I think he’s doing a pretty good job.  If he’s one of the reasons so many young guys are still in camp or got long looks this spring, he jumps up another notch.  His next big test will be the amateur draft.  If they can get a quality draft in, he’ll move even farther up.

Haedar:  Can’t really grade him accurately at this point but he’s made some good and some bad moves.  The two worst moves of the offseason were signing both Izturis and Miles to guaranteed deals instead of minor league deals with invitations to spring training.  The best move came a day or so ago locking up Wainwright long term.

Bryan:  I would give Mozeliak a B so far.  It was probably a B- before the Lohse signing, but the signing was such a good deal that he has to get a B.  On the other hand, the Miles re-signing was a very questionable move (and still is, considering Miles’ terrible spring so far).  Trading Rolen was good for the team, trading Edmonds was neutral (although it opened up a position in our already crowded outfield), and the Izturis signing was just plain bad.  Overall, however, I’m very satisfied with the direction this team is going.

Michael:  Mozeliak:  average or slightly better than average so far, but it’s still too early to tell.  I’m not a big fan of Lohse after watching him get torched in Cincinnati for the past few years, but with our starters in disarray again Mozeliak didn’t have much choice but to sign another pitcher.  He at least got Lohse on the relative cheap.  Hell, he can’t be any worse than Kip Wells, right?  Managing to move Rolen for more than a used glove and a bucket of baseballs was a victory.  The Miles signing, I agree with all, is a head scratcher unless viewed through the “Tony wanted him” prism.  Signing Wainwright yesterday was a great move.

Daniel:  The middle infield situation definitely is Mozeliak’s biggest drawback.  Especially when he himself admits he’d have signed Adam Everett if he had thought he’d been nontendered.  (Though that wouldn’t have helped with the offense, it’d done wonders defensively.)  Adding Miles to the mix was really unnecessary save to appease La Russa, I’d guess.

Me:  Overall:  B+.  With the exception of Miles and Gonzalez, I think the Cards made all the right moves. The Molina and Wainwright deals are by far the best.  Payroll flexibility is much better than it has been in recent years.  We’ll see what they do come draft time.

3.)  How much better (or worse depending on your answer to question 2) is this team compared to last year’s squad?  How many wins will the Cards have at the end of the season, and where do they finish?

Daniel:  I think this squad might be a little better than last year.  I think the pitching will be better, at least on the whole.  The offense is pretty intriguing.  If Kennedy hits like he has this spring and Molina hits like he did last year, there’s only Izturis as a “OK, nothing is happening here” spot in the lineup.  I’m still holding out hope for a .500 season.

Haedar:  I think the starters are a little better, the offense is better, or at least has more potential to put up better power numbers, but the bullpen will not be as good because people will be moving in and out and therefore some integral parts will not know their main role.  I think most bullpens can be decent as long as the guys in it know what their main role is and in what situation they are called upon to pitch.  With a lot of injured players coming back from the DL, there is going to be a lot of shifting around and some pitchers will not get comfortable in their temporary role.

Bryan:  I think the team is better than last year, but a few injuries could really turn this season into a disaster.  I think 80-85 wins is a very optimistic prediction, but I’ll go ahead and make it.  I’m confident in our outfield and returning pitchers.  Still don’t think that’ll be good enough for anything but third.

Michael:  Even with all the moves the team has tread water overall since last season ended.  The bullpen is still a plus but didn’t improve; the starters overall are still a minus and didn’t improve; the lineup is a wash; the bench is slightly better.  It seems all our eggs for a good team are in the respective rehab baskets of Carpenter, Mulder, and Clement.  I expect they’ll finish within +0, -10 games of .500 with the team they have now.

Haedar:  I think the Cardinals’ record will get worse before it gets better.  That’s to the tune of 75 wins this season.

Me:  I think it depends on how you look at it.  Before Opening Day ‘07, the Cards looked good.  The pitchers all had good springs (even Wells), and no one thought they’d finish under .500.  A ton of injuries changed the outlook dramatically.  I’m optimistic about the offense.  I think the potential to score a lot more runs is there.  The starting pitching may be a wash, and I agree that the bullpen could be worse this year.  I’m also wondering if the clubhouse will miss Edmonds, Rolen, and Eck.

That’s it.  Lots of good points from everyone, and I’m sure they’ll be a lot more in the next installment.  I love talking baseball!

Changing Landscape

The Cardinals starting rotation is in complete disarray, and the club may have finally decided to “look further” into adding help from the outside. The list of pitchers on the mend but “progressing nicely” is getting longer by the day.  Already Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement won’t be ready for the start of the season, and now it seems that Joel Pineiro might not be either.

“I’m not assuming he won’t be there opening day,” said pitching coach Dave Duncan.  ”I’m assuming he won’t be there until he starts throwing again.”

Duncan goes on to say that he’s never gone this deep into spring with so much uncertainty surrounding the rotation.

Cards’ GM John Mozeliak has slightly changed his tune by inquiring about free agent pitcher Kyle Lohse.

“I think given the Pineiro situation, the landscape has changed to some degree,” said Mozeliak.

Read more on the state of the Cardinals staff from Joe Strauss, and hat tip to Kurt Hunzeker and Bird Land for the credit on the above logo.

Lohse, 29, pitched for both Cincinnati and Philadelphia last season, going a combined 9-12 with a 4.63 ERA.  For his career, Lohse is 63-74, with a 4.82 ERA.  View all of his stats here.

Without any additions, the Cardinals rotation consists of only two pitchers that started more than 20 games last season:  Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper.  Until the rehabbing pitchers return, the other three spots would fill out with some combination of Anthony Reyes, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, or even one of the youngsters, Mike Parisi or Kyle McClellan.  I don’t think there’s anything wrong with any of those pitchers, and I wouldn’t mind seeing one of them in the rotation, but not three.  It seems like adding a guy like Lohse would make sense.  When you think about it, Pineiro made only 11 starts in ‘07, and Carpenter, Mulder, and Clement combined for just 4.  That is a lot of uncertainty to be riding on.  Lohse made 32 starts last year, and has made 30 or more in five of the last six seasons.

“The key concern is how do we bridge the gap until we get our pitchers back,” Mozeliak said.

I say bring in Kyle Lohse.

Weaver a Possibility?

The Cardinals have shown a mild interest in adding another arm to the competition for the available spots in the starting rotation.  Coming into camp, three pitchers were vying for the fifth spot, at least until Mark Mulder’s return.  Now, with the news on Matt Clement, the trio of Reyes, Wellemeyer, and Thompson would be competing for two rotation slots.

According to the Joe Strauss, of the Post Dispatch, the Cardinals have contacted the agent of former Redbird Jeff Weaver.  Weaver is one on a short list of available pitchers.  Read Strauss’ article here.

I’m in favor of adding to the competition in Spring Training, but I’m not if favor of adding any of the retread arms that are left in the bargain bin, including Weaver.  Don’t get me wrong, Weaver eventually got back on track late in 2006 and had a great stretch run.  Without him, the Cards wouldn’t have won the World Series. I just question whether or not a guy like Weaver would be any better than the previously mentioned threesome.

Remember, Weaver had a terrible time in ‘06 with the Angels, and when the Cardinals first acquired him, he was still terrible.  It took a while for Dave Duncan and staff to get him better results.  After turning down the Cardinals’ two year offer, Weaver had an equally poor year with Seattle in ‘07.  View his stats here.

Ideally, the Cards will get back Clement and/or Mulder in May.  Certainly a guy like Wellemeyer can make a few starts until then, and likely, make them better than Weaver could.  On the other hand, with the track record of Dr. Paletta and company, we might not see any of the injured pitchers back this season.  Could Weaver come in handy then?  Maybe.  But I think that the guys already in camp have just as good a chance to succeed as he does.  For more on this story, check out Jeff Gordon’s article, here.

Clement Behind Schedule

The Cardinals’ newest starting pitcher Matt Clement might not be ready for the start of the 2008 season. Clement’s shoulder surgery and subsequent rehab have kept him off a major league mound since June of ‘06. Reports from camp in Jupiter say he’s behind schedule, and needs to build back his arm strength.  Pitching coach Dave Duncan is now altering Clement’s schedule, which will now include long toss sessions between bullpen throwing days.  It’s likely that Matt won’t start the season in the Cards’ rotation.

“In all honesty, I will be surprised if he’s ready for opening day,” Duncan said.  ”And I’m not too sure even if he is ready, we wouldn’t likely have him compete somewhere else just to get him in the swing of things. He’s behind.  How far?  Don’t know yet.”

This could mean that the three pitchers competing for the last spot in the rotation, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Anthony Reyes, will now be competing for two rotation spots.  A May return for Mark Mulder is still hopeful.  Barring any setbacks, Chris Carpenter should return sometime mid-season.

Cardinals’ GM John Mozeliak remains content with the current pitching staff, and despite the news on Clement, has no plans of pursuing any of the remaining free-agent arms.

“If I felt this was something that was a major setback or some guaranteed uncertainty, then I think obviously we’d have to re-evaluate where we are,” said Mozeliak.

For more on this story, read Derrick Goold’s article in the Post Dispatch here, and Matthew Leach’s on MLB.com here.

There are plenty of reactions to the news throughout Cardinal cyberspace.  Check out my favorites from Cardinals Diaspora and Bernie’s Extra Points.

2008 Team Projection

As we all know, the Cardinals finished under .500 in 2007, with a record of 78-84.  It was the team’s first losing season since 1999, when they went 75-86.  Most Cardinal fans aren’t expecting a World Championship in ‘08, and many aren’t holding out for a division title either.  I’d guess most of us would be happy to be in the hunt come September, and finish with at least 81 wins to avoid back-to-back losing seasons.

Springtime always brings new optimism and a clean slate.  Every team is even.  Every team is a legitimate contender.  Then Baseball Prospectus releases their team projections, based on PECOTA, a sabermetric system for predicting player performance.  The system is rather accurate each year, and picked the Cards to finish third behind Chicago and Milwaukee last season.  They’ve done it again.  This time, they predict a 72-90 record for this year’s Birds, finishing only ahead of Pittsburgh in the division.  For some, the optimism dwindles.  Not for me.

Sure there’s a lot of question marks penciled throughout the Cardinals’ roster.  We don’t know what to expect from guys like Clement, Mulder, Reyes, Izturis, Kennedy, and maybe some others.  What if Albert needs surgery and is shut down for the year?  What if Looper or Pineiro can’t continue to improve as major assets in the rotation?  What if Ankiel and Duncan can’t better their plate discipline?  The questions could go on.  They way I see it, however, is that if a few things can go right this season, the 2008 Cardinals will be a better team than the one that lost 86 games last year.  Don’t count this club out before the games are played.  Look for a few surprise performances from some unexpected contributors.  No team in the Central is going to run away with the division.  I’m still optimistic.  The Cardinals will contend.

Check out the full projected standings from Baseball Prospectus here, and view each of the Cardinal players projections here.

Odds and Ends

First and foremost, Cardinals’ outfielder Rick Ankiel was kind enough to take part in a live chat with fans earlier today courtesy of mlb.com.  Although I was unable to participate, I did manage to pull some of the highlights:

• He will not pitch again
• He prefers hitting home runs over than giving them up
• He and Chris Duncan plan to hit a combined 60 homers this year
• The return to the big leagues as an outfielder is his greatest achievement thus far
• He has a strong and respectful relationship with Tony La Russa
• He loves playing in St. Louis and feels a strong connection to the fans there

Update (02/13):  Find the full transcript of the Ankiel chat here.

In my opinion, the highlight of the session was the plug by Ankiel for his new website, rickankielonline.  I previewed the site earlier today and really liked what I saw.  I highly recommend checking it out, and be sure to view all the pictures.  Great stuff.

Next, Derrick Goold has been blogging from Cardinals camp for the last few days.  Today, he reports the progress of pitchers Matt Clement and Mark Mulder.  Here’s the link to his blog.

This got me thinking.  Since I’m off work later this weekend, I’m thinking of making the short drive up to camp in Jupiter for my first visit of the spring.  By then, most of the players will have arrived, although the first scheduled full squad workout isn’t planned until Monday.  Of course I’ll post all my thoughts, along with pictures from the complex, so be sure to check back.

Finally, the folks at Fungoes have an interesting analysis of the different outfield combinations.  I was a little surprised with their results.  Check it out here.

2008 Team Outlook – Part 4

With under a month now until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it’s time to take a look at the Cardinals starting rotation.  I’ve already discussed the bullpen, both the infield and the outfield, and the team’s payroll, so check them out if you missed them.

Anyone who watched the ‘07 team knows that the biggest weakness was the starting pitching.  The group will have to be much better this year in order for the club to stay competitive.  So far, word is that staff ace, Chris Carpenter, will be out until mid-season, as he completes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  Carpenter pitched only one game (opening day) last year.  According to reports, lefty Mark Mulder should be ready to go by May 1st, although I won’t be holding my breath.  Mulder’s timetable has never been accurate.  I often wonder about our medical staff, but that’s a whole other story.  So who will be in the rotation out of spring?

Adam Wainwright, the de facto ace, might get the ball on opening day.  In 2007, Wainwright was 14-12, with a 3.70 ERA in 32 starts.  He was, however, a much better pitcher in the second half.  To me, Wainwright’s best pitch, his curve, wasn’t as knee-buckling in ‘07 as it was the year before.  Remember how dominant he was closing out games in the playoffs?  I bet Carlos Beltran is still having Game 7 nightmares.  Now, with a full big league season under his belt, I expect Wainwright to be slightly better in ‘08.

Braden Looper will again have a big role this year.  Last season was his first as a starter.  In 31 games (30 starts), he went 12-12, with a 4.94 ERA.  He showed some arm fatigue in ‘07, but should have more endurance this year.  I expect him to be improved as well.

Newcomer, Matt Clement, joins the rotation this season.  He hasn’t pitched in a major league game since June 14, 2006, so it’s nearly impossible to predict what we’ll get out of him.  I liked the low risk signing, and I’m hoping he can log innings and come close to being the pitcher he was with the Cubs.  From 2002-04, Clement started 94 games, going 35-36, with very respectable ERAs and high strike out totals.  I’m looking forward to seeing him pitch this spring.

Joel Pineiro slots into the fourth spot.  After the Cardinals picked him up last year, he compiled a record of 6-4, with an ERA of 3.96 in 11 starts.  There was some talk last season of him tipping his pitches, but apparently that’s been worked out.  I’d be happy with 10-12 wins from Joel in ‘08.

As it looks right now, the fifth spot could be a combination of guys.  Anthony Reyes, Todd Wellemeyer, and Brad Thompson could all start games until Mulder is healthy.  Wellemeyer showed promise last season, while Reyes was downright awful.  He didn’t get much run support, but it always seemed like he’d give up one big inning and get the loss.  Surprisingly though, barring a trade, I’m looking for Reyes to be the fifth guy.  He’s had a few outstanding games with the Cards (so did Jason Marquis), but was excellent throughout most of his time in the minors.  A new season, with a clean slate, is just what Reyes needs.

Overall, the starting rotation looks improved over last season.  Not having Kip Wells or Mike Maroth involved is a plus.  Perhaps the better glove at short this year could make a difference too.  Either way, it should be more fun to watch.

Josh Phelps and More

The Cardinals added more depth for their bench today, signing right-handed hitting first baseman, Josh Phelps, to a minor league deal.  The contract is said to include an invite to Spring Training, where he’ll earn $750,000 if he makes the big club, with possible incentives adding another $250,000.  Phelps, 29, has played for five different teams, including Pittsburgh in ‘07, where he hit .351, with 5 homers in 77 at-bats.  All of his stats can be found here.  Derrick Goold, of the Post Dispatch, has more on the signing here.

The way I see it, Phelps is merely a replacement for Tagg Bozied, who recently signed a minor league deal with the Florida Marlins.  Although Phelps offers decent power off the bench, I just don’t see room on the roster for him.  I imagine he’ll start the year in Memphis, and act as insurance in case of an injury to Pujols or one of the catchers.  We’ll see how things shake down in Spring Training.

I’ll go ahead and pass a few more links your way.  Jeff Gordon give a rundown on the Cards’ moves thus far here, while Goold talks about the front office new hire, Gary LaRocque, here.  And, if you’re wondering how to spend an extra $4000 to $400,000, check out the Cardinals’ new Ballpark Founders Marketplace.

And finally, I stumbled across a nice story about a Cubs fan getting an autograph from Matt Clement:

  In ‘03, my cousin and I went to ‘Fan Photo Day’ at Wrigley (where the fans got to go down of the field and meet some of the players and take pictures). Neither one of us were terribly interested (we were both much more interested in just seeing Wrigley from the field, more than anything), with one exception. He absolutely had to get a picture with Matt Clement (who, for various reasons, is his favorite player – so much so, that his license plate reads “HMC 30” – the H stands for Honest). The way this whole thing was set up, there was a rope and the players would sort of walk along the rope from one end of the field to the other, posing for pictures and shaking hands along the way. It got pretty crowded along the rope and the crowd was probably 5 or 6 people deep at this point. When my cousin saw Clement, he politely pushed his way through the crowd to get up to the front, yelling “Matt! Matt!” the whole way to get Clement’s attention. 
  My cousin is a big guy (6’6”, probably 280). He gets to the front of the line, directly in front of Clement, and my cousin says “Matt! I’m your biggest fan!” At this point, the chucklehead standing next to him yells, “Literally!”, due to my cousin’s size. My cousin and Clement both crack up (at which point I snap the picture from the back of the crowd – one of my favorite pictures ever) from the joke. It became one of those stories that gets told over and over again and “Literally!” became something of a catchphrase within our circle of friends.
  Around this time last year, I’m starting to think about my upcoming wedding and what to get my cousin for a best man’s gift. I wanted to get him something really, really special, because he’s done a lot for me over the years and the traditional stuff just wasn’t going to cut it. I was thinking about getting an autographed ball from the internet or something, but I decided that wasn’t good enough, so I wrote Clement a letter telling him the story and what a big fan my cousin was and asked him if he would mind signing the ball that I sent. A few months pass, and I get a package in the mail from Boston. I open it up and Clement signed the ball, “To Ben, My Biggest Fan – Literally! Matt Clement # 30”. This absolutely made my freakin’ day. I don’t think I stopped laughing for a week.
  The night of my rehearsal, I give my cousin the ball and he was just stunned. I mean, he practically cried. He got me a truly great wedding gift (the best gift we got from anyone, in fact), and he later told me that he was embarrassed about how crappy his gift to us was compared to the ball. It’s one of his prized possessions now.

  So that’s the story of the best autograph I’ve ever gotten. Very cool of Mr. Clement to do that for us.

Here’s the link.

Quick Notes and Links

After two signings in two days, nothing happening in Baseball Heaven today.  I did, however, stumble across a few good articles about our beloved Redbirds, and thought I’d pass them along while we wait for some fresh news.

First, a couple of journalists over at the Post Dispatch expressed their thoughts on the Clement contract. In addition to his opinion, Jeff Gordon also breaks down the starting rotation as it stands now.  Check out that article here.  Brian Burwell gives his take here.

Over on the Official Cardinal website,  Mathew Leach has begun his annual “Around The Horn” segment, where he covers a different part of the team each week, leading up to Spring Training.  His take on the catchers can be found here.

And finally, I always find it interesting where former Cardinals end up.  Fan favorite So Taguchi signed a one year deal with the Phillies.  Gary Bennett landed with the Dodgers, also on a one year deal.  And John Rodriguez, one of my least favorites, signed a minor league contract with the Tampa Bay Rays.  

Cards Bring Back Miles

Utility infielder, Aaron Miles, re-signed with the Cardinals today after being non-tendered late last month.  The contract is for one year at $1.4 million. This will be Miles’ third season with the Birds on the Bat.  He filled an important role on both the ‘06 and ‘07 teams, getting playing time at second, short, third, and he even pitched a couple of innings last season.  In 2007, Miles hit .290 and scored 55 runs.  He also committed 14 errors, including three in one inning.  His career stats can be found here.  Derrick Goold, of the Post Dispatch, has more about the deal here.

I must say, I don’t really understand this move.  I think Aaron Miles is a good utility infielder, and will obviously welcome him to the team, but with Adam Kennedy, Brendan Ryan, and Scott Spiezio all returning from last season, as well as the addition of Cesar Izturis and the minor league contract given to D’Angelo Jimenez, I don’t see room on the roster for Miles.  Also, let’s not forget about Jarrett Hoffpauir, our second base prospect approaching an opportunity for playing time.  Why spend $1.4 million on Miles when we have basically the same player in Brendan Ryan already on the team for much less money?  I hope this doesn’t mean that Ryan starts the year in AAA.  Perhaps we’ll see another move in the coming days involving one of our middle infielders.  If not, maybe we can try to field an entire team with nothing but infielders.  I bet Jose Oquendo would like that.

In other news, the contract details for yesterday’s signing of pitcher Matt Clement have been released.  He’ll receive $1.5 million in base pay, with a possible $5.25 million in incentives based on appearances.  The ‘09 option would be for $8.75 million with a $250,000 buyout.  C70 has more on that here.